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ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemic trends and current status in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021， and to provide evidence for formulating and optimizing schistosomiasis control strategies in the province. MethodsEpidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2021 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to investigate the epidemic trends of schistosomiasis， and the annual average percent change （AAPC） was used to assess the changing trend of schistosomiasis infection in humans and bovines. SPSS 25.0 software was used to analyze the target achievement status， infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and the areas with snails in 2021 to evaluate the differences among various districts and epidemic regions. ResultsBy 2021， 24 counties （61.50%） in the province had achieved the elimination goal， with hilly and marsh counties reaching 82.60% and 31.30%， respectively. The seropositive rate of schistosomiasis in human was 3.51% across the province. However， the seropositive rate in marshland areas （4.77%） was significantly higher than that in hilly areas （1.23 %） （χ2=3 827.51， P<0.001）. The total area with snails in the province was 84 938.32 hm2， including 82 196.86 hm2 in marshland areas and 2 741.46 hm2 in hilly areas. From 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in the humans and bovines exhibited a declining trend， with AAPC values of -48.70 and -39.70， respectively. The decline rate in the hilly areas was higher than that in marshland areas. However， the area with snail showed an upward trend （AAPC=0.50）， with a growth rate of 5.80% in hilly areas， which was greater than that in marshland areas （0.40%）. ConclusionFrom 2002 to 2021， the infection rate of schistosomiasis in humans and bovines in Jiangxi Province continued to decline， while the areas with snails increased. The prevention focus should still be on the marshland endemic areas， and attention should also be given to the risk of schistosomiasis in hilly endemic areas. Therefore， it is necessary to continue implementing a comprehensive prevention and control strategy that emphasizes controlling the sources of infection and adopts tailored measures based on local conditions and precise policies.
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OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the incidence trend and spatial clustering characteristics of scarlet fever in China from 2016 to 2020 to provide evidence for development of regional disease prevention and control strategies.@*METHODS@#The incidence data of scarlet fever in 31 provinces and municipalities in mainland China from 2016 to 2020 were obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook and the Public Health Science Data Center led by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The three-dimensional spatial trend map of scarlet fever incidence in China was drawn using ArcGIS to determine the regional trend of scarlet fever incidence.GeoDa spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to explore the spatial aggregation of scarlet fever in China in recent years.@*RESULTS@#From 2016 to 2020, a total of 310 816 cases of scarlet fever were reported in 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions, with an average annual incidence of 4.48/100 000.The reported incidence decreased from 4.32/100 000 in 2016 to 1.18/100 000 in 2020(Z=103.47, P < 0.001).The incidence of scarlet fever in China showed an obvious regional clustering from 2016 to 2019(Moran's I>0, P < 0.05), but was randomly distributed in 2020(Moran's I>0, P=0.16).The incidence of scarlet fever showed a U-shaped distribution in eastern and western regions of China, and increased gradually from the southern to northern regions.Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Hebei and Gansu provinces had the High-high (H-H) clusters of scarlet fever in China.@*CONCLUSION@#Scarlet fever still has a high incidence in China with an obvious spatial clustering.For the northern regions of China with H-H clusters of scarlet fever, the allocation of health resources and public health education dynamics should be strengthened, and local scarlet fever prevention and control policies should be made to contain the hotspots of scarlet fever.
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Humans , Incidence , Scarlet Fever/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Spatial Analysis , Cluster Analysis , Spatio-Temporal AnalysisABSTRACT
Objective:To master the epidemic trend of Kashin-Beck disease (KBD) in Gansu Province and provide a scientific basis for prevention and treatment of KBD.Methods:All children aged 7 - 12 or 16 years old were selected as the survey subjects in 37 KBD districts and counties in Gansu Province, clinical and X-ray monitoring results of KBD in children from 2004 to 2018 were collected to analyze the epidemic trend of the disease.Results:From 2004 to 2018, a total of 97 190 children were examined clinically and 94 180 X-ray films were taken in Gansu Province. Four hundred and twenty-eight clinical positive cases were detected, with a detection rate of 0.44%. There were 649 X-ray positive cases, and the detection rate was 0.69%. There were 435 metaphyseal positive cases, the detection rate was 0.46%. There were 214 positive cases of bone end, and the detection rate was 0.23%. The clinical positive rate was the highest (7.17%, 58/809) in 2004, followed by 2007 (4.60%, 51/1 109) and 2005 (4.48%, 187/4 173), and the positive rate in other years was less than 3%. The positive rate of X-ray was the highest (9.59%, 58/605) in 2004, followed by 2005 (5.10%, 213/4 173), 2008 (3.66%, 45/1 228) and 2006 (3.04%, 125/4 107), the positive rate of other years was less than 3%.Conclusions:The clinical positive rate and X-ray positive rate of KBD in children in Gansu Province are decreased rapidly and then maintain a low fluctuation. The effect of comprehensive prevention and control measures is remarkable.
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Objective To explore the development trend and influencing factors of major diseases of urban residents, and to construct a prediction model of _heart disease mortality. Methods One-way analysis of variance (Duncan's test at a=0.05) and correlation analysis were used to analyze the significant differences between the different categories of disease mortality and the correlation with the influencing factors. The exponential function was used to fit the relationship between the proportion of the elderly population and the death rate of heart disease at various stages, and the prediction model of heart disease mortality was constructed through the stepwise regression equation. Results The mortality rate of heart disease and cerebrovascular disease showed a rising trend. The incidence of the four major diseases in men was significantly higher than that in women (P2 > 98, P<0.01). Conclusion According to the results of the survey, the influencing factors of major diseases and the high-risk population should be focused on prevention and treatment. It is recommended that the prevention and treatment of heart disease is carried out for the aged 60+ and the prevention and treatment of cerebrovascular diseases is carried out for the aged 80.
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Objeetive@#To learn the epidemic status of COVID-19 in some high-epidemic countries, so as to provide reference for prevention and control of imported COVID-19 in China. @*Methods@#We collected the data of all the countries who totally reported over ten thousand cases of COVID-19 by March 29, 2020, and analyzed the epidemic trend by using the incidence rate, the case fatality rate, the five-day moving average time dependent reproduction number (Rt) as well as the average daily increase rate. @*Results @#Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, France, lran, UK, USA and China were inchuded in the analysis. Spain( 15.46/100 000), Switzerland(15.44/100 000) and Italy ( 15.30/100 000)ranked top three in the incidence rate of COVID-19. Italy (10.84%), Spain (7.88%) andlan (7.11%) ranked top three in the case atality rate. By March27, the values of five-day moving average Rt in USA, UK, Iran, Spain and France were all more than one. The average daily increase rate in China had changed negative since March 6. The average daily increase rates in the other eight countries ranged from 41.58% to 18.17%, and the trend was slow down from March 20 to 29, among which Germany, Switzerland and Italy had the largest decline of 35.60%, 29.76% and 25.56%, respectively @*Conclusions @#By March 29, the epidemie situation of COVID-19 in China was under controls; the situations in ltaly, Germany and Switzerland tended to be stable; while the situations in USA, UK, Iran, Spain and France maintained an upward tmend.
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Objective To understand the trend of epidemics and variation of pathogens on hand,foot and mouth diseases (HFMD) in China for setting up appropriate intervention measures.Methods Data related to reported cases and outbreaks of HFMD from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance Reporting System of China,2008 to 2017,was collected and analyzed.Based on the geographical location and types of climate,the total 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in the mainland of China,were divided into seven regions:north-west,north,mid-north,east,mid-south,south,and south-west regions,with epidemic trends and variation of pathogens analyzed.The average speed of growth on the dynamic series from 2008 to 2017 was calculated,using the Geometric Average method.Results The overall reported incidence rate of HFMD during 2008-2017 was 134.59 per 100 000 population with an average increase of 15.92％.The proportion of severe cases was 0.84％,with 9.56％ increase.The reported mortality rate of HFMD was 0.03/100 000,with an average decrease of 3.49％.The case fatality rate was 0.02％ and with a decrease of 16.86％.A total of 6 000 outbreaks were reported during the decade.Except for 1.09％ decrease on the incidence rate in the north region,all the other regions showed an increase on the morbidity rates,with the highest as 25.20％ in the south region.Mortality rates showed 27.53％ and 0.60％ increases in both the south-west and mid-north regions,respectively.Mortality rates in the other regions all showed a decreasing trend.In terms of case fatality rate,it increased 4.15％ in the south-west region while all decreased in the other regions.Two higher age-special morbidity rates appeared in the 1 year olds as 3 184.19/100 000 and in the 2 year olds as 2 547.47/100 000,with the most increase seen in both 0 year (26.08％) and 1 year age groups (23.35％).High age-specific mortality rates were noticed in both the 1-year group as 0.86/100 000 and the 2-year group as 0.54/100 000,however with reductions as 1.21％ and 10.70％ respectively.As for the case fatalities,the 0 year olds and 1 year olds accounted for 0.039％ and 0.027％ but both of them had decreased by 19.12％ and 19.91％,respectively.Case fatality rates decreased by 16.93％ and 16.75％,in males and females.Proportions of EV71 and Cox A16 decreased by 4.28％ and 3.07％,but the proportion of other entero-viruses increased by 16.07％.EV71 was responsible for the high frequency of epidemics in both mid-north and the mid-south regions.However,in other five regions,other strains of EV's were responsible for the epidemics.Conclusions The characteristics of HFMD in China showed that the morbidity of HFMD and proportion of severe cases were both in increasing trends but both the mortality and case fatality of HFMD were decreasing.Children younger than 3 years old showed both high infection and death rates for HFMD.Epidemics caused by other enteroviruses of non-EV71 and non-Cox A16 were seen more.Variance and pathogens related to the epidemic cycles appeared different in the seven regions.
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Many clinicians have the following 4 misconceptions about the incidence and epedemil trend of gallbladder cancer.(1) The incidence of gallbladder cancer and extrahepatic bile duct carcinoma is considered as the incidence of gallbladder cancer.(2) The gallbladder cancer is the common malignant tumor of the digestive system.(3) The gallbladder cancer is the most common malignant tumor of biliary tract system.(4) The incidence of gallbladder cancer is increasing year by year.Based on the latest annual report of the 2016 Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report,published by the National Cancer Center (NCCR),combined with previous annual reports and the data of the incidence of gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct cancer in the related articles,supplemented by clinical data,the author points out that the incidence of gallbladder cancer in China is about 1.00-1.30 per 100 000.It is pointed out that gallbladder cancer is not the most common cancer in the digestive and biliary systems.The incidence of gallbladder cancer has not been significantly increased in recent years,and its 5-year relative survival rate has been reduced by 0.9％ since 2003.Although the incidence of gallbladder cancer is low,the malignant degree is high and the prognosis is poor.It highlights the lack of effective treatment for the disease,and further hints that we should strengthen the necessity of early diagnosis and treatment of gallbladder cancer.
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Objective To understand the trend of epidemics and variation of pathogens on hand,foot and mouth diseases (HFMD) in China for setting up appropriate intervention measures.Methods Data related to reported cases and outbreaks of HFMD from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance Reporting System of China,2008 to 2017,was collected and analyzed.Based on the geographical location and types of climate,the total 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in the mainland of China,were divided into seven regions:north-west,north,mid-north,east,mid-south,south,and south-west regions,with epidemic trends and variation of pathogens analyzed.The average speed of growth on the dynamic series from 2008 to 2017 was calculated,using the Geometric Average method.Results The overall reported incidence rate of HFMD during 2008-2017 was 134.59 per 100 000 population with an average increase of 15.92％.The proportion of severe cases was 0.84％,with 9.56％ increase.The reported mortality rate of HFMD was 0.03/100 000,with an average decrease of 3.49％.The case fatality rate was 0.02％ and with a decrease of 16.86％.A total of 6 000 outbreaks were reported during the decade.Except for 1.09％ decrease on the incidence rate in the north region,all the other regions showed an increase on the morbidity rates,with the highest as 25.20％ in the south region.Mortality rates showed 27.53％ and 0.60％ increases in both the south-west and mid-north regions,respectively.Mortality rates in the other regions all showed a decreasing trend.In terms of case fatality rate,it increased 4.15％ in the south-west region while all decreased in the other regions.Two higher age-special morbidity rates appeared in the 1 year olds as 3 184.19/100 000 and in the 2 year olds as 2 547.47/100 000,with the most increase seen in both 0 year (26.08％) and 1 year age groups (23.35％).High age-specific mortality rates were noticed in both the 1-year group as 0.86/100 000 and the 2-year group as 0.54/100 000,however with reductions as 1.21％ and 10.70％ respectively.As for the case fatalities,the 0 year olds and 1 year olds accounted for 0.039％ and 0.027％ but both of them had decreased by 19.12％ and 19.91％,respectively.Case fatality rates decreased by 16.93％ and 16.75％,in males and females.Proportions of EV71 and Cox A16 decreased by 4.28％ and 3.07％,but the proportion of other entero-viruses increased by 16.07％.EV71 was responsible for the high frequency of epidemics in both mid-north and the mid-south regions.However,in other five regions,other strains of EV's were responsible for the epidemics.Conclusions The characteristics of HFMD in China showed that the morbidity of HFMD and proportion of severe cases were both in increasing trends but both the mortality and case fatality of HFMD were decreasing.Children younger than 3 years old showed both high infection and death rates for HFMD.Epidemics caused by other enteroviruses of non-EV71 and non-Cox A16 were seen more.Variance and pathogens related to the epidemic cycles appeared different in the seven regions.
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Objective@#This study was aimed to analyze the epidemic trend and predict the incidence trend of occupational diseases during 2006-2015 in Guangdong province, which may provide the theoretical foundation for occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.@*Methods@#We analyzed the number of reported occupational disease cases, the constituent ratio, the average age and working-age of patients. We also performed the linear-by-linear association test of new incidence, median age and median working-age by curve-fitting method, of which the diagnostic year was set as the independent variable. Meanwhile, we designed an ARIMA model to predict the variation tendency of occupational diseases in 2017-2020.@*Results@#(1) During 2006-2015, the total reported cases of occupational disease is 5289, including 2101 cases of occupational pneumoconiosis (39.7%) , 1363 cases of occupational poisoning (25.8%) , and 864 cases of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease (16.3%) . (2) The number of occupational diseases and pneumoconiosis have a straight upward trend (R2=0.851, R2=0.856) , while the number of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease and occupational tumor have a exponential trend (R2=0.914, R2=0.696) . The constituent ratio of occupational poisoning is decreasing, and the constituent ratio of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease is increasing. (3) The average onset age is 40 (33, 46) years old, and the average onset working-age is 6 (3, 11) years. Both of them have a straight upward trend (R2=0.954、R2=0.792) . The onset age of pneumoconiosis, occupational poisoning and occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease have a upward trend. In addition, the onset working-age of occupational poisoning and pneumoconiosis have a upward trend. (4) The number of occupational diseases in 2017-2020 is predicted to be between 902-1231.@*Conclusion@#Occupational diseases in Guangdong province showed a trend of high incidence. The age and working-age of occupational diseases showed an extended trend. Therefore, our work of occupational epidemic trend may provide some bases for the occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.
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Objective To analyze the malaria control measures and epidemic trend in Hubei Province from 1974 to 2015, so as to provide the evidence for malaria elimination path analysis. Methods The malaria control data in Hubei Province from 1974 to 2015 were collected and analyzed retrospectively by descriptive epidemiological methods. Results The epidemic pro?cess of malaria in Hubei Province was divided into four stages. From 1974 to 1979,it was high prevalence state of malaria,and the average annual incidence was 174.47/10 000. From 1980 to 1999,the main control strategies were to control the infection source and mosquitoes,and the average annual incidence was 17.30/10 000,significantly downward. From 2000 to 2009, through the surveillance of infection sources and controlling malaria outbreaks and strengthening the floating population manage?ment,the average annual incidence was 0.42/10 000. After 2010,followed by the elimination phase of malaria,the incidence continued to decline. In 2013,there was no local infection for the first time. The difference of average annual incidence among above?mentioned stages was statistically significant(χ2=1 254.36,P<0.05). Conclusions The malaria epidemic process in Hubei Provincial experienced the high epidemic stage,sharply drop stage,low incidence phase and the elimination phase. How?ever,the natural factors affecting malaria still exist. Therefore,strengthening the control of imported malaria and surveillance should be the main task in the process of eliminating malaria in the future.
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Objective To explore epidemic characteristics and trend of livestock brucellosis in Zibo,and to provide a scientific basis for development of prevention strategies to brucellosis.Methods Epidemiology statistical analysis and forecast was made based on related information such as the active immunization data of human brucellosis,the infection data between people and livestock,and the active immunization data among livestock over the years since 1954.Results From 1954 to 2011,37 years had brucellosis cases reported in Zibo City,with accumulative reports of 380 cases,and the average incidence rate was 0.2512/100 000,distributed in 118 villages 56 counties 3 towns 5 districts of the whole city.From 1954 to 1988,only 14 years had brucellosis cases reported,with accumulative reports of 94 cases,and the average incidence rate was 0.1573/100 000.From 1989 to 2011,each year had brucellosis cases reported,with accumulative reports of 283 cases,and the average incidence rate was 0.3158/100 000,of which the highest incidence was in 2011 (45 cases).From 1958 to 2011,there were a total of 140 154 livestock went through serology monitoring,1162 positives,and the positive rate was 0.83％,while the total immunization number of sheep was 884 900,of which 28 years did not carry out immunization work.Conclusions The incidence rate has decreased year by year since the seventies of last century.But the epidemic is on the rise since 1989,while new epidemic areas are emerging and the history affected areas are still serious,therefore the brucellosis prevention and control situation is still grim.
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Objective To explore the characteristics of temporal distribution and epidemic trend of autumn-winter type scrub typhus using the time series analysis.Methods Based on the data of scrub typhus collected from Shandong Diseases Reporting Information System from 2006 to 2011,both spectral analysis and moving average analysis were used to analyze the annual data of scrub typhus while scrub typhus incidence in 2012-2014 was forecasted.Seasonal decomposition analysis was applied to analyze the monthly data from January of 2006 to October of 2011,followed by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) which was constructed to forecast case number in November and December of 2011 and compared to the actual incidence.Results The results of spectral analysis showed that the prevalence of autumn-winter type scrub typhus had a feature of ‘3-year-periodicity’.A long-term up-trend was confirmed by method of moving average analysis,with annually case numbers of 310,337 and another number of 366 forecasted for 2012 to 2014,respectively,with the annual increase rate as 9％ per-year.Data from analysis of monthly data of scrub typhus showed that through multiple seasonal decomposition analysis,the results indicated that the prevalence of this disease possessed a typical autumn-winter type.The seasonality indexes for scrub typhus in October and November were 8.454 and 2.230,respectively,while others were less than 1.000.The ARIMA (0,1,1 ) (0,1,0)12 model of ( 1 -B) ( 1 -B12)X,=( 1 -0.811B)u,that was used to forecast the prevalence of autumn-winter type scrub typhus and was constructed with the residual error of 16 lags as white noise.The Box-Ljung test statistic for the model was 3.116,giving a P value of 0.999.The model fitted the data well.Good accordance was achieved between the observed values and the forecasted values of scrub typhus in November and December of 2011 which was produced by the ARIMA model,and all observed values were within the forecasted 95％ CI.Conclusion The prevalence of autumn-winter type scrub typhus showed a 3-year-periodicity,with a long-term up-trend,and the case numbers of 2012 to 2014 were forecasted,rising on the end with an increasing rate of 9％ per year,which occurred seasonally with October as the peak time in every year.The ARIMA (0,1,1 ) (0,1,0) 12 model seemed to be quite appropriate in predicting the autumn-winter type scrub typhus.
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Objective To understand the characteristics and trends of HIV and syphilis infections among drug users. Methods Information was collected regarding HIV and syphilis epidemics, as well as on high risk behaviors from the HIV/AIDS surveillance system. Source of information was from HIV/AIDS case- reporting, sentinel surveillance and trend estimation, related to the changes of distribution among HIV positive drug users prevalence rates on HIV and syphilis together with their high risk behaviors. Results Scale number on drug users remained stable in the past six year (from 2003-2009), while the proportion of drug users decreased from 44.2% in 2005 to 25.8% in 2009. Based on the information from HIV/AIDS case reporting system, HIV sentinel surveillance data showed that the HIV prevalence of drug users was quite different from those of Southwestern to Northeastern parts of China. The HIV prevalence in Southwestern China was much higher than that of the Northeastern areas. Sentinel surveillance data showed that the average positive rates were 6.2% and 3.7% on HIV and syphilis , among the drug users. As for injecting drug users (IDU), the average rates on HIV antibody syphilis and HCV were 9.2% and 4.0% respectively. Series surveillance data indicated that the HIV epidemic expanded quickly among drug users from 1995-1999 but became plateaued after 2000 among the IDUs. HIV antibody positive rate remained at 9.0%-10.0% in the past three years while syphilis fluctuated between 3.5%-4.5% in the past three years. Conclusion Drug users and IDUs still remained an important driven factor for HIV/AIDS epidemic in China, suggesting more specific strategies and methods should be developed, based on the characteristics and trends of HIV epidemic, to optimize the allocation HIV prevention and control resources.